SHANGHAI — On the surface, China’s economy is humming along smoothly.

It’s the numbers behind the numbers that point to mounting challenges for the world’s other economic superpower.

上海——从表面上来看，中国经济正在平稳发展。

是那些公开数据背后的数字表明了这个世界上的另一个经济大国面临着越来越多的挑战。

The Chinese government on Monday reported that the economy grew 6.

7 percent in the three months that ended in June compared with a year ago.

That is pretty close to the rate that China has reported quarter after quarter over the past two and a half years.

The pace puts it comfortably within its target of achieving growth of around 6.

5 percent for the full year.

周一，中国政府报告，第二季度经济同比增长6.

7%。

这个数字与过去两年半以来中国每个季度公开的增长速度非常接近。

这一增速让中国恰巧处在全年增长速率约6.

5%的目标中。

Those figures belie warning signs elsewhere.

More detailed data show weakening investment in infrastructure and a slowdown in spending by China’s usually ebullient consumers.

Private Chinese businesses complain that government efforts to tame debt have made it hard for them to get money.

A tiny but growing number of Chinese companies have defaulted on their debt.

The currency has lost some of its value.

Chinese stocks are in bear market territory.

这些数据掩盖了其他地方的警告迹象。

更为详细的数据显示，基础建设投资减弱，中国通常非常活跃的消费者支出也在放缓。

中国的民营企业抱怨，政府遏制债务的努力让它们难以获得资金。

一小部分中国公司已经拖欠了债务，这个群体还在增长。

货币在贬值。

中国股市目前是熊市。

It may just get tougher from here.

The United States has started a trade war with China, and by this autumn it could widen the conflict by hitting another $200 billion in Chinese goods with tariffs.

While the Chinese have made progress diversifying their economy, the country still relies heavily on making and exporting toys, clothes, car parts and other goods to the United States and elsewhere.

从现在开始，形势可能还会变得更加艰难。

美国已经开始了对华贸易战，到今年秋天，美国可能还会对另外价值2000亿美元的中国商品加征关税来扩大冲突。

尽管中国已经在经济多元化方面取得进步，但仍严重依赖向美国和其他地方出口玩具、服装、汽车零件及其他商品。

China has options, but they have drawbacks.

China could put more money into its banking system, which would juice growth.

It could also ramp up spending in big projects like highways and airports.

But both could undermine its efforts to break the country’s addiction to borrowing.

中国有选择，但这些选择也存在缺陷。

中国可以将更多资金投入银行系统，这将刺激经济增长。

它还能加速在例如高速公路及机场这类大型项目中的支出。

但这两项措施都会削弱中国抑制对借贷上瘾的努力。

Roads to Prosperity繁荣之路China’s spending on bullet trains, highways and bridges has long driven its growth.

That spending has kept steel and concrete factories in business and helped provide paychecks to millions of workers.

中国在高铁、高速公路和桥梁上的支出长期以来一直驱动着它的增长。

这些支出使钢铁和混凝土工厂业务不断，为数以百万计的工人提供薪水。

Now that investment has begun to falter.

现在这方面的投资已经开始下降。

China’s annual infrastructure investment growth, which has consistently risen about 20 percent in recent years, has slowed to less than half that rate so far this year.

That slowdown has coincided with renewed pledges by Beijing to tackle China’s debt problems, which stem from big spending by local governments and big Chinese state-controlled companies.

中国的基础设施投资年增长率近年来一直保持在20%左右，但今年迄今为止，增幅已降至该速度的一半不到。

这种放缓恰逢北京再次承诺解决中国债务问题的时候，这些问题源于地方政府和中国大型国有控股公司的巨额支出。

Signs of a deliberate slowdown were apparent during the second quarter.

In China’s sparsely populated Xinjiang region in the far west, local and regional agencies halted or ordered immediate reviews of the viability of many projects.

第二季度出现了明显放缓的迹象。

在中国人口稀少的西部新疆地区，地方机构叫停了许多项目，或要求立即审查它们的可行性。

Several other inland provinces, plus coastal Shandong Province, ordered halts or financial reviews of infrastructure projects about the same time.

Particularly targeted for suspension have been projects that were being built by so-called public-private partnerships.

与此同时，其他几个内陆省份，加上沿海的山东省，也叫停了基础设施项目或对其进行财务审查。

这些暂停特别针对那些通过所谓公私伙伴关系建立的项目。

Beijing has encouraged local and regional governments to engage in partnerships with private investors over the last several years as an alternative to heavy borrowing by government agencies.

But evidence has mounted that many government agencies promised fixed rates of return to their private sector partners.

That has fostered concern that it is essentially more borrowing by government agencies in disguise.

在过去几年，北京鼓励地方和地区政府与私人投资者建立伙伴关系，以替代政府机构大举借贷。

但越来越多的证据表明，许多政府机构承诺向其私营合作伙伴提供固定回报率。

这引发了人们的担忧，政府机构在伪装之下借贷更多。

China now appears to be splitting the difference.

In a complex edict on Friday, it forbade cities below a certain size from building subways systems, even as it indicated that delayed projects in larger cities could go forward with some limits.

中国现在似乎正被这种差异撕裂。

在周五公布的一项复杂法令中，它禁止一定规模以下的城市修建地铁系统，但又表示，在大一些的城市内，遭到延迟的项目可能会在一些限制之下继续进行。

Counting on Consumers指望消费者China has successfully turned to its consumers to pick up the slack during slow times.

Retail sales have boomed as an increasingly middle-class China buys more cars, smartphones, appliances, dairy products and a wide variety of other goods.

在经济放缓时期，中国成功令其消费者提振不景气的状态。

随着日益壮大的中国中产阶级购买更多汽车、智能手机、电器、乳制品和各种其他商品，零售业开始蓬勃发展。

That boom may be easing.

Retail sales growth slowed earlier in the quarter, official data showed, though it picked up a bit in June.

这种繁荣可能正在走下坡路。

官方数据显示，本季度中国零售业增长放缓，但6月份略有回升。

The slowdown may have a number of underlying reasons, like a decline in consumer lending for cars and a flattening of the market for smartphones.

But China’s bean counters may also be missing some vibrant activity.

They may not, for example, capture the full scope of online shopping.

这一放缓可能有许多潜在原因，例如汽车消费贷款下降和智能手机市场趋于平缓。

但中国的经济统计者可能也疏忽了一些繁荣的活动。

比如说，他们对网络购物的情况可能没有全面的了解。

Consumer pessimism over China’s economy may be overstated, according to the China Beige Book, a quarterly survey of big businesses across China.

The Beige Book survey suggested that the government’s statisticians might have overestimated retail sales growth in previous years, and are now compensating with low estimates of current sales.

根据对中国大企业的季度调查 中国褐皮书　(China Beige Book)显示，消费者对中国经济的悲观情绪可能被夸大了。

褐皮书调查显示，政府统计人员可能过高估计了往年的零售额增长，现在正在用低估当前销售额来修正。

The current weakness in official data is better understood as a lagged reflection of past softness,” the Beige Book’s second-quarter report said in late June.

The retail sector may be seeing a turn higher, with profit and investment growth improving.

”官方数据目前的疲弱，理解为对过去疲弱的滞后反映更为妥当，”6月底公布的 褐皮书　第二季度报告表示。

随着利润和投资增长的改善，零售业可能会出现上升。

”What the Numbers Show — and What They Don’t数字能表明什么，不能表明什么In the end, it isn’t clear whether the economic growth figure tells us much about the state of the Chinese economy.

In fact, research shows that China has been both overestimating and underestimating growth for years.

最后，目前尚不清楚经济增长数据是否能够告诉我们中国经济的现状。

事实上，研究表明，中国多年来对增长一直既有高估又有低估。

One new analysis suggests that the Chinese economy grew even faster last year than official data showed.

The analysis, by professors at Cambridge University in Britain and two Dutch universities, was based on sales and gross margin data from 150 of China’s biggest companies.

一项新的分析表明，去年中国经济增长速度甚至超过官方数据。

该分析是英国剑桥大学(Cambridge University)和两所荷兰大学的教授根据中国150家最大公司的销售和毛利率数据得出的。

How is it possible that China understated its own growth last year?

The analysis also indicates that China was over-reporting growth in 2015 and 2016, when China suffered a stock market crash and a disorderly currency devaluation.

So some of the growth last year may have been catch-up — and that has now faded.

中国怎么可能低估自己去年的增长率?

这项分析表明，中国在2015年和2016年过高地报告了自己的增长率，当时它正遭遇股市崩盘和货币的失调贬值。

因此，去年的一些增长可能是一种弥补，现在它已经消退了。

【中国公布第二季度经济数据，平稳背后暗含危机查看网站：[db:时间]】